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Is Polymarket Losing its Touch on Election Predictions?
Is Polymarket Losing its Touch on Election Predictions?
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BTCCSquare news:
Polymarket, the crypto-based prediction platform, faces scrutiny after failing to anticipate Zohran Mamdani's upset victory in the NYC mayoral primary. Despite rapidly adjusting odds to 94.6% once results emerged, the platform maintained an 80% probability for Andrew Cuomo until Election Day—mirroring its controversial 0.3% odds for the current Pope’s selection.
This follows Polymarket’s accurate call of Trump’s 2020 win, now questioned as an outlier. The discrepancy highlights the volatility of crowd-sourced crypto prediction markets, where liquidity and participant bias can distort outcomes. Election integrity debates intensify as traders weigh whether the platform’s Trump success was statistical luck or a replicable model.
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